冬季中国近海海表温度的长期升高及其对中国降水的影响   总被引：4，自引：0，他引：4  

黄晓璐  徐海明  邓洁淳 《气象学报》2015,73(3):505-514

利用1962—2011年HadISST海表温度资料和中国160站逐月降水等资料通过回归和相关分析等方法,分析了中国近海冬季海表温度(SST)的长期升高及其与中国冬季降水的关系。研究表明,近50年来中国近海冬季海表温度呈现明显的长期升高趋势。进一步分析发现,中国近海冬季海表温度的升高与长江中下游及以南地区冬季降水的增加存在显著的相关。最后,利用全球大气环流模式(CAM5.1)模拟研究了近海海温长期升高对中国降水的影响,模式模拟结果很好地验证了观测结果,表明中国近海冬季海表温度的长期升高确实对中国冬季降水存在影响。  相似文献   

海温异常对东亚夏季风强度先兆信号的影响   总被引：1，自引：1，他引：0       下载免费PDF全文

柯宗建  华丽娟  钟霖浩  杜良敏 《应用气象学报》2015,26(5):536-544

利用ERA-Interim再分析资料、NOAA海温资料、CMAP格点降水资料和中国气象站降水资料,通过合成、相关和回归分析等方法研究了1979—2012年东亚夏季风强度与其先兆信号的关系,并分析了热带海温异常的可能影响。研究表明:东亚夏季风先兆指数反映了2月200 hPa纬向风距平的主要模态特征 (EOF1),前冬热带中东太平洋海温偏低 (高),2月亚洲地区西风急流位置偏北 (偏南),东亚夏季风先兆指数偏强 (弱)。前期热带海温异常对东亚夏季风强度有明显影响,前冬热带中东太平洋海温偏低 (高) 有利于东亚夏季风偏强 (弱)。2月亚洲中纬度地区纬向风异常特征在春季不能持续,先兆信号与东亚夏季风强度的联系主要源自热带海洋。  相似文献   

IMPACT OF SSTA OF SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE ON FLOOD SEASON PRECIPITATION ANOMALIES IN YUNNAN     

杨竹云  杨素雨  严华生  张瑾文 《热带气象学报(英文版)》2015,21(3):255-264

Based on the reanalysis data of monthly mean global SST and wind from the NCEP/NCAR and the observation data of rain seasons in 124 stations of Yunnan province from 1961 to 2006, we applied the analytical methods of correlation analysis and composite analysis and a significance testing method to two sets of samples of average differences. The goal is to investigate into the influence of the Southern Hemispheric (SH) SST on the summer precipitation in Yunnan from January to May so as to identify the key time and marine regions. Physical mechanisms are obtained by analyzing the influence of sea level wind and the key marine regions on the precipitation during Yunnan’s rain season. Results show that there is indeed significant relationship between the SST in SH and summer precipitation in Yunnan. The key areas for influencing the summer precipitation are mainly distributed in a region called “West Wind Drift” in the SH, including the Southeast Indian, southern Australia, west coast of eastern Pacific off Chile, Peru and the southwest Atlantic Magellan. Besides, the most significant marine region is the west coast of Chile and Peru (cold-current areas of the eastern Pacific). Diagnostic analysis results also showed that monsoons in the Bay of Bengal, a cross-equatorial flow in the Indian Ocean near the equator and southwest monsoon in India weaken during the warm phase of the Peruvian cold current in the eastern Pacific. Otherwise, they strengthen.  相似文献   

南海热带气旋频数的气候预测方法     

梁健  林永堂  谢定升  林镇国  林少冰 《气象科技》2007,35(5):626-630

利用前期北半球500 hPa高度场格点资料、海温场(SST)格点资料,计算与后期热带气旋(TC)发生频数的相关系数,分析两个相关场显著相关区的统计特征,进一步分析其天气气候学意义和物理意义。选取若干相关系数高的格点,组成组合因子,建立二项式曲线方程,对影响南海以及登陆或影响广东的热带气旋,做年、月频数预测。预测试验和检验表明,二项式曲线预测模型有较高的拟合能力,在影响南海以及登陆或影响广东的热带气旋年、月频数预测中,有较好的效果。  相似文献   

HY-2B扫描微波辐射计海温产品在典型区域的精度验证和分析     

周武 《海洋通报》2022,(5)

“海洋二号B”卫星（HY-2B）于2018年10月25日发射,是我国第二颗海洋动力环境探测卫星,其上搭载有包括扫描微波辐射计（SMR）在内的多个载荷,海表面温度（SST）是SMR的主要产品之一。本文分别利用NOAA提供的iQuam实测海温数据、CORIOLIS卫星WINDSAT反演的海温遥感产品、NCEP模式海温数据,在两个典型区域,对2020年1月1日至2020年12月31日期间的HY-2B/SMR海温产品进行了验证,其中HY-2B/SMR与iQuam实测海温的Bias为0.004℃,RMSE为0.65℃左右,CORR高于0.95。通过进一步分析,由区域A的分析结果揭示出HY-2B/SMR海温产品精度随纬度变化的规律及其原因,同时,由区域B的分析结果揭示出陆地、岛礁以及RFI对海温总体反演精度的影响约为0.1℃。  相似文献   

Sea surface temperature and salinity reconstruction based on stable isotopes and Mg/Ca of planktonic foraminifera in the western Pacific Warm Pool during the last 155 ka     

仇晓华  李铁刚  常凤鸣  南青云  熊志方  孙晗杰 《中国海洋湖沼学报》2014,32(1):187-200

Changes in sea surface temperature(SST), seawater oxygen isotope(δ 18 O sw), and local salinity proxy(δ 18 O sw-ss) in the past 155 ka were studied using a sediment core(MD06-3052) from the northern edge of the western Pacifi c Warm Pool(WPWP), within the fl ow path of the bifurcation of the North Equatorial Current. Our records reveal a lead-lag relationship between paired Mg/Ca-SST and δ 18 O during Termination II and the last interglacial period. Similarity in SST between our site and the Antarctic temperature proxy and in CO 2 profi le showed a close connection between the WPWP and the Antarctic. Values of δ 18 O sw exhibited very similar variations to those of mean ocean δ 18 O sw, owing to the past sea-level changes on glacial-interglacial timescale. Calculated values of δ 18 O sw-ss refl ect a more saline condition during high local summer insolation(SI) periods. Such correspondence between δ 18 O sw-ss and local SI in the WPWP may refl ect complex interaction between ENSO and monsoon, which was stimulated by changes in solar irradiance and their infl uence on the local hydrologic cycle. This then caused a striking reorganization of atmospheric circulation over the WPWP.  相似文献   

Warmer-Get-Wetter or Wet-Get-Wetter? A Criterion to Classify Oceanic Precipitation     

Chengcheng Qian  Ge Chen 《中国海洋大学学报(英文版)》2014,13(4):552-560

In this study, the temporal and spatial variations of observed global oceanic precipitation during 1979–2010 are investigated. It is found that the global trend in precipitation during this period varies at a rate of 1.5%/K of surface warming while the rate is 6.6%/K during 2006–2010. The precipitation is highly correlated with Sea Surface Temperature(SST) in both the temporal and the spatial patterns since the strong 1997–98 El Nino event. Considering the distributions of precipitation and SST, seven oceanic regions are classified and presented using the observed Global Precipitation Climatology Project(GPCP) data and Extended Reconstructed Sea Surface Temperatures, version 3(ERSST.v3) data. Further examining the mechanisms of the classified oceanic precipitation regions is conducted using the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission(TRMM) satellite, GFDL-ESM-2G model precipitation and SST data and Hadley Center sea ice and SST version 1(Had ISST1) data. More than 85% of global oceanic precipitations are controlled by either one or both of the warmer-get-wetter mechanism and wet-get-wetter mechanism. It is estimated that a 0.5 SST signal-to-noise ratio, representing the trend of SST time series to the standard deviation, is a criterion to distinguish the mechanism of a region. When the SST ratio is larger than 0.5, the precipitation of this region is controlled by the warmer-get-wetter mechanism. SST, rather than the humidity, is the pivotal factor. On the other hand, when the SST ratio is less than 0.5, the precipitation is controlled by the wet-get-wetter mechanism. The SST variability is a significant factor contributing to the precipitation variation.  相似文献   

2011/2012年冬季中国气温异常的成因及前兆信号   总被引：1，自引：1，他引：0       下载免费PDF全文

谭桂容  王腾飞 《大气科学学报》2014,37(1):65-74

采用国家气候中心整理的全国160站月平均气温资料、NCEP/NCAR再分析资料及NOAA全球海温资料,在探讨1986年以来中国冬季气温异常机理基础上,对2011/2012年冬季气温异常特征及其前兆信号进行分析。结果表明:地面西伯利亚高压、东亚冬季风及500 hPa乌拉尔山与贝加尔湖南侧的异常环流等系统是影响中国冬季气温的主要中高纬环流系统,而中低纬环流系统主要包括西太平洋副高环流和印缅槽。前期热带印度洋和中东太平洋关键区海温异常与后期冬季气温关联的环流系统有密切的关系:前期夏季7、8月西印度洋海温偏高时,冬季西伯利亚高压将偏强,有利于冬季风偏强和中国冬季气温偏低;而当8—10月中东太平洋海温偏高时,西太平洋副高将偏强偏大偏西,北界位置偏北,印缅槽偏强,中国气温容易偏高,反之亦然。两者对后期环流的影响存在一定的独立性,中国冬季地面气温异常是它们共同作用的结果。  相似文献   

CMIP5模式对南海SST的模拟和预估   总被引：4，自引：1，他引：3  

黄传江  乔方利  宋亚娟  李新放 《海洋学报》2014,36(1):38-47

分析了32个CMIP5模式对南海历史海表温度(SST)的模拟能力和不同排放情景下未来SST变化的预估。通过检验各气候模式对南海历史SST增温趋势和均方差的模拟,发现大部分模式都能较好地模拟出南海20世纪历史SST的基本特征和变化规律,但也有部分模式的模拟存在较大偏差。尽管这些模拟偏差较大的模式对SST多模式集合平均的影响不大,但会增加未来情景预估的不确定性。剔除15个模式后,分析了南海SST在RCP26、RCP45和RCP85三种排放情景下的变化趋势,发现在未来百年呈明显的增温趋势,多模式集合平均的增温趋势分别为0.42、1.50和3.30℃/(100a)。这些增温趋势在空间上变化不大,但随时间并不是均匀变化的。在前两种排放情景下,21世纪前期的增温趋势明显强于后期,而在RCP85情景下,21世纪后期的增温趋势强于前期。  相似文献   

中国近海海平面变化与ENSO的关系   总被引：2，自引：1，他引：1  

王慧  刘克修  张琪  范文静  高志刚  张增建  李琰 《海洋学报》2014,36(9):65-74

利用中国沿海台站潮位和中国近海及赤道太平洋的卫星测高、海表温度、风及气压资料,分析了中国近海海平面变化与ENSO的关系。分析结果表明:中国沿海海平面季节变化受ENSO影响明显,在厄尔尼诺事件期间,中国沿海海平面Sa分潮的振幅明显减小,其中年振幅的历史极小值均出现厄尔尼诺年,不同区域历史极小值出现的年份不同;另外,中国沿海Sa分潮的振幅对厄尔尼诺事件的响应与其强弱有关,在强事件中,响应区域和幅度较大,弱事件中,响应区域和幅度偏小。在厄尔尼诺年,中国沿海海平面多低于相邻年份,并且其年际变化存在明显的2~3a、4~7a、准9a、11a和准19a的周期,其中4~7a的周期在冬春季节震荡最显著,其震荡幅度接近2cm。中国近海海平面与赤道东太平洋区域的海表温度年际变化之间存在反相关关系,其相关系数为-0.42;同时与Nio4和Nio3.4指数序列也呈现反相关关系。针对典型的1997/1998年尼诺事件发生前后的风场和气压场分析发现,尼诺发生前的冬半年,冬季风偏强,气压梯度加强,中国沿海海平面偏低;到了厄尔尼诺的盛期,出现较强的南风异常,气压梯度反向,季风转向,过渡到了厄尔尼诺事件的衰减期,为拉尼娜事件做准备,此时海平面偏高。  相似文献